1. Inversion
1.1. Avoiding stupidity is easier than trying to be brilliant.
1.1.1. What are you trying to achieve?
1.1.2. What would guarantee that you'll fail to achieve it?
1.1.2.1. This is the inversion
1.1.3. Consider solutions to avoid this failure
1.2. Not "How can I help my company?"
1.2.1. "What's hurting my company the most and how can I avoid it?"
2. Baker's Dozen
2.1. The key to good hospitality is to delight your guests with an unexpected gift
3. The Map is not the Territory
3.1. Reality will never match the elegance of theory
3.1.1. All models have inconsistencies, but some are still useful
3.1.2. Some maps are useful because they're inaccurate
4. Paradox of Abundance
4.1. The average quality of information is getting worse
4.1.1. But the best stuff is getting better
4.1.2. Markets of abundance:
4.1.2.1. Bad for median consumer
4.1.2.2. Good for conscious consumers
5. Resource Curse
5.1. Countries rich in natural resources tend to have less economic growth
6. The Medium is the Message
6.1. We pay too much attention to what's being said
6.1.1. But the medium is more impactful
7. Via Negativa
7.1. When we have a problem, our natural instinct is to add a new habit or purchase a fix
7.1.1. But sometimes you can improve your life by taking things away
8. The Go-for-it Window
8.1. 2007 was the perfect time to launch the iPhone
8.1.1. But Google Glass launched too early
9. Convexity
9.1. If you want to be lucky, look for opportunities with big upsides
9.1.1. And low downsides
10. Circle of Competence
10.1. Definte the limits of your knowledge
10.1.1. Be clear about what you know
10.1.2. And what you don't know
11. Base Rate
11.1. The average outcome for an event over time
11.1.1. If you're starting a business, avoid the restaurant business
11.1.2. Margins are low and competition is high
12. The Invisible Hand
12.1. Markets aggregate knowledge
12.1.1. Prices are a signal wrapped in an incentive
13. Penny Problem Gap
13.1. Economists assume demand is linear
13.1.1. But people's behavior totally changes once an action costs money
14. The Paradox of Consensus
14.1. Too much agreement can imply a systematic error in the process
15. Personal Monopoly
15.1. Corporations reward conformity, but the Internet rewards people who are unique
15.1.1. Find your own style, then run with it
15.1.2. Create intellectual real estate for yourself
16. The Copernican Principle
16.1. The more we learn about astronomy, the less it seems that earth is special
17. Creativity Begins at the Edge
17.1. Change starts away from the spotlight
17.1.1. Then it moves towards the cneter
18. Availability Cascade
18.1. A self-reinforcing cycle that creates collective beliefs
18.1.1. Lots of people to adopt it not because it's true
18.1.2. But because it's popular
19. Horseshoe Theory
19.1. Extreme opposites tend to look the same
20. Legibility
20.1. We are blind to what we cannot measure
20.1.1. Not everything that counts can be measured
20.1.2. Not everything that can be measured counts
20.1.3. But people manage what they can measure
20.1.3.1. So society repeats the same mistakes
21. Robustness Principle
21.1. Be conservative in what you do
21.1.1. Be liberal in what you accept from others
22. Hormesis
22.1. A low dose of something can have the opposite effect of a high dose
22.1.1. A little bit of stress wakes you up, but a lot of stress is bad for you
23. Hickam's Dictum
23.1. In a complex system, problems usually have more than one cause
24. Occam's Razor
24.1. Trust the lowest complexity answer
25. Emergence
25.1. When things interact, they often birth new, unpredictable forms
25.1.1. The sum total of a system is more than its component parts
26. Paradox of Specificity
26.1. Focus isn't as constraining as it seems
26.1.1. Narrowing your aperture can expand your horizons
27. Second Law of Thermodynamics
27.1. The world tends towards disorder
28. Parkinson's Law
28.1. Work expands to fill the time available
28.1.1. People don't want to look like they're lazy
28.1.2. So they find extra tasks to tackle, even if they're trivial
28.1.3. If you have six months to complete a project, it'll take six months
28.1.3.1. Set deadlines accordingly
29. Hock Principle
29.1. Simple, clear purpose and principles give rise to complex and intelligent behavior
29.1.1. Complex rules and regulations give rise to simple and stupid behavior
30. Gall's Law
30.1. A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked
30.1.1. A complex system designed from scratch never works
30.1.2. It cannot be patched up to make it work
30.1.3. You have to start over with a working simple system
31. Goodhart's Law
31.1. When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure
32. Table Selection
32.1. You shouldn't compete against the best people
32.1.1. If you want to win, pick an easy table and nail your execution
33. Bike-Shed Effect
33.1. A group of people working on a project will fight over the most trivial ideas
33.1.1. They'll ignore what's complicated
34. Planck's Principle
34.1. Science doesn't progress because people change their views
34.1.1. As old generations pass away, new ideas are accepted
35. Overton Window
35.1. You can control thought without limiting speech
35.1.1. Define limits of acceptable thought
35.1.2. Allow lively debate within these barriers
36. Opportunity Cost
36.1. By reading this, you're choosing not to read something else
36.1.1. Doing one thing requires giving up another
37. Russell Conjugation
37.1. Journalists often change the meaning of a sentence by replacing one word with a synonym
37.1.1. Estate tax vs death tax
38. Law of Shitty Click-Through Rates
38.1. Most marketing strategies have a short window of success
38.1.1. Banner ads
38.1.2. Newsletters
39. The Wisdom of Paradox
39.1. Logic is the key to scientific truths
39.1.1. But paradoxes are the key to psychological truths
39.1.2. When you find two opposites that are both true, start exploring
40. Look for Things that Don't Make Sense
40.1. When it's confusing, your model of the world is wrong
40.1.1. Big opportunities won't make sense until it's too late to profit from them
41. Demand Curves Slope Down
41.1. The harder something is to do, the fewer people will do it
42. The Never-Ending Now
42.1. The structure of the Internet and social media pulls people away from age-old wisdom
42.1.1. We live in an endless cycle of ephemeral content consumption
43. Secrets are Hidden in Plain Sight
43.1. The best ideas can come from things that are so well-known that they aren't well-seen
44. Competition is for Losers
44.1. Avoid competition
44.1.1. Stop copying what everybody else is doing
44.1.2. If you work at a for-profit company, work on problems that would not otherwise be solved
45. Talent vs Genius
45.1. Society is good at training talent
45.1.1. But terrible at cultivating genius
45.2. Talented people are good at hitting targets
45.2.1. Geniuses find targets others can't see
46. Mimetic Theory of Conflict
46.1. People who are similar are more likely to fight than people who are different
46.1.1. Civil Wars and family feuds create the worst conflicts
47. Mimetic Theory of Desire
47.1. Humans are like sheep
47.1.1. We don't know what we want, so we imitate each other
48. Faustian Bargain
48.1. A man once sold his soul to a demon in exchange for knowledge
48.1.1. At first it seemed like a smart trade
48.1.2. But the man lost in the long run
48.1.3. What the man lost was more valuable than what he earned
49. Preference Falsification
49.1. People lie about their true opinions and conform to socially acceptable preferences instead
50. Theory of Constraints
50.1. A system is only as strong as its weakest point
50.1.1. Focus on the bottleneck